A Rush For The Exits

The Real Estate Espresso Podcast

A Rush For The Exits

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Welcome to The Real Estate Espresso Podcast, your morning shot of what’s new in the world of real estate investing. I’m your host, Victor Menasce. On today’s show, we’re discussing about what might be a rush for the exits.

When someone is deported from the United States, they are barred from entering the US, even as a visitor, for 10 years. So, getting deported could be a big deterrent, something to be avoided. Certain people who enter the US are true refugees under the Geneva Convention’s definition of conventional refugees. These are individuals who are fleeing persecution on the basis of race, religion, sexual orientation, freedom of speech, etc. There are quite a few criteria that meet this definition.

Then, there are a lot of people migrating around the world for economic reasons. They, however, do not meet the refugee definition and such individuals need to enter the country through the proper immigration channels.

As widely reported in the media, the new White House administration intends to reverse the past four years of open borders by planning a mass deportation of up to a million people. This is not a political show, it’s a real estate show. My intention here is to predict at least one of the outcomes of this proposed action.

First off, I have some firsthand visibility into the world of refugees. My wife runs a clinical family therapy practice in Ottawa, Canada with over twenty therapists. A significant and increasing portion of her business consists of assisting refugees in preparing for their refugee board hearings. Many who claim asylum in Canada come from various parts of the world, including Syria, Cameroon, Nigeria, Chad, Somalia, among others.

We experienced a surge of migrants leaving the US and heading to Canada shortly after the 2016 election. Many claimed asylum at the Canadian border. Despite one’s opinions on the upcoming action, there will be broad reactions. Some will support the move, many will be outraged, and there will be accusations of all kinds. Some may choose to make for the exits before deportation.

If we look back a decade or more, most of the migration into the US at the southern border was mainly from Mexico. Today, that’s no longer the case. The issue is no longer a Mexican issue. If your country of origin was Venezuela, you’re getting sent back there, irrespective of you entering from Mexico.

As we saw in 2016, we can expect to see a surge of people claiming asylum in Canada. The exact number is difficult to predict, as some illegal migrants have developed ways to fly below the radar in the US. Others have tried to integrate fully into the community.

When Sheriff Joe was in charge in Phoenix, he made it his mission to identify and apprehend undocumented migrants. This resulted in about 200,000 people leaving the Phoenix area. We can expect similar situations in other states like Texas, Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, California, to name a few.

It’s a fact that Canada has very limited housing capacity. In fact, there’s a proposal before City Council in my home city of Ottawa to construct temporary accommodation for refugees inside two large inflatable domes. This measure is facing significant public opposition. I, too, oppose this solution for housing refugees. Some of the oldest hotels and motels in the city have been converted into shelters for asylum seekers. I am aware of the kind of accommodation being offered to refugees, and it’s very substandard – a family of five living in a single hotel room with no cooking facilities is not adequate.

It speaks to Canada’s housing shortage. After the U.S. election, the Canadian government reported a spike in visits to their immigration website. We saw a similar level of interest in moves to Canada following the 2016 election. Yet, there has not been significant migration from the U.S. to Canada on the basis of conventional immigration.

The world today is more dangerous than it was back in 2016 and more people are being displaced by persecution than back in 2016. We can expect more people fleeing their countries in search of a safe haven.

Germany has implemented border controls within the European Union to slow the flow of migrants. Canada is reducing its immigration quotas and the U.S. aims to close its borders to illegal migration.

All of these changes indicate that Canada may face a surge in migration that it is ill-equipped to handle. However, business is all about solving problems. There is surely a business opportunity to help solve the problem of finding suitable housing for the increasing number of people who are already housing-challenged and many more poised to arrive in the near future.

As you think about that, have an amazing rest of your day. Go make some great things happen. We’ll talk again tomorrow.